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Climate Change and Migration

287 Pages · 2014 · 3.94 MB · English

  • Climate Change and Migration

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    EVIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST


    AND NORTH AFRICA


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    c Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani,


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    P George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux


    Editors Climate Change and Migration A WORLD BANK STUDY


    Climate Change and Migration


    Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa


    Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph,


    and Nathalie Bougnoux, Editors


    Washington, D.C. © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank


    1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433


    Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org


    Some rights reserved


    1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14


    World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community


    with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the


    procedures appropriate to formally edited texts.


    This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,


    and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of


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    Rights and Permissions


    This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://


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    distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:


    Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Wodon, Quentin, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie


    Bougnoux, eds. 2014. Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa. World


    Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2. License: Creative Commons


    Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO


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    1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.


    ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9971-2


    ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9972-9


    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


    Cover photo: Young women fetching water from a well in Taroudant Province, Morocco. © Julio Etchart / The World


    Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse.


    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data


    Climate change and migration : evidence from the Middle East and North Africa / edited by Quentin Wodon,


    Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux.


    pages cm


    “World Bank Study.”


    ISBN 978-0-8213-9971-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-9972-9


    1. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—Middle East. 2. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—


    Africa, North. 3. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Middle East. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—


    Africa, North. 5. Middle East—Environmental conditions. 6. Middle East—Economic conditions. 7. Africa,


    North—Environmental conditions. 8. Africa, North—Economic conditions. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. World Bank.


    HB2093.3.A3C55 2013


    304.80956--dc23 2013015475


    Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents


    Acknowledgments xi


    Overview xiii


    Introduction xiii


    Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households xv


    Coping and Adaptation Strategies xvi


    Migration xix


    Remittances xxii


    Conclusion and Policy Implications xxiii


    Note xxvii


    Bibliography xxvii


    PART 1 Synthesis 1


    Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation


    in the MENA Region 3


    Introduction 4


    Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather


    Events 8


    Migration 13


    Remittances 20


    Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies 21


    Community and Government Programs 27


    Conclusion 30


    Notes 31


    Bibliography 32


    PART 2 Focus Countries and Data 37


    Chapter 2 Focus Countries 39


    Introduction 39


    Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries 40


    Algerian Context 43


    Egyptian Context 47


    Moroccan Context 50


    Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 v vi Contents


    Syrian Context 53


    Yemeni Context 56


    Conclusion 59


    Notes 59


    Bibliography 59


    Chapter 3 Data Collection 65


    Introduction 65


    Household Survey Questionnaire 66


    Household Survey Data Collection 68


    Qualitative Data Collection 81


    Conclusion 86


    PART 3 I mpacts, Coping Strategies, and


    Adaptation Mechanisms 87


    Chapter 4 P erceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks,


    and Impacts on Households 89


    Introduction 89


    Data 90


    Perceptions of Climate Change 92


    Impact on Households 97


    Conclusion 103


    Annex 4A: Distribution of Perceptions by Quintiles


    of the MCA’s First Factor 104


    Bibliography 105


    Chapter 5 W eather Shocks, Impacts, and Households’


    Ability to Recover in Morocco 107


    Introduction 107


    Data 109


    Basic Statistics 110


    Correlates of the Likelihood of Shocks and


    the Ability to Recover 114


    Conclusion 120


    Bibliography 120


    Chapter 6 H ow Do Households Cope with and Adapt


    to Climate Change? 123


    Introduction 123


    Data and Methodology 124


    Household Coping Mechanisms 127


    Household Adaptation Strategies 132


    Community-Level and Government Responses 139


    Conclusion 141


    Bibliography 142


    Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents vii


    PART 4 Climate Change and Migration 143


    Chapter 7 D o Changes in Weather Patterns and the


    Environment Lead to Migration? 145


    Introduction 145


    Data 147


    Basic Statistics 149


    Correlates of Resident and Nonresident Migration 155


    Conclusion 160


    Annex 7A: Reasons for Migration by Country,


    Five Countries Sample 161


    Bibliography 162


    Chapter 8 C limate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region:


    Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork 163


    Introduction 163


    Rationale for Qualitative Work and Methodology 165


    Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


    Rural (Sending) Areas 170


    Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


    Urban (Receiving) Areas 174


    Heterogeneity between Countries in the


    Reasons for Migration 179


    Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco 182


    Conclusion 184


    Annex 8A: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


    Interview Questions in Urban Areas 185


    Annex 8B: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


    Interview Questions in Rural Areas 186


    Annex 8C: Key Informant Questions for Government


    Officials and Nongovernmental Experts 188


    Notes 189


    Bibliography 189


    Chapter 9 I s Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal


    Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case 191


    Introduction 191


    Data and Methodology 192


    Results 194


    Conclusion 202


    Bibliography 202


    Chapter 10 E xtreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case


    of Morocco 205


    Introduction 205


    Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 viii Contents


    Data 206


    Basic Statistics 208


    Correlates of the Probability of Migration 213


    Conclusion 217


    Bibliography 218


    PART 5 Remittances 221


    Chapter 11 D o Remittances Reach Households Living in Unfavorable


    Climate Areas? Evidence from the Republic of Yemen 223


    Introduction 223


    Data and Methodology 225


    Results 234


    Conclusion 236


    Notes 237


    Bibliography 237


    Chapter 12 D oes the Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human


    Development Depend on the Climate of Receiving Areas? 241


    Introduction 241


    Data and Methodology 243


    Results 244


    Conclusion 250


    Bibliography 251


    Boxes


    8.1 Testimony from a Rural Respondent in Algeria 171


    8.2 Testimony from an Urban Respondent in the Republic


    of Yemen 176


    Figure


    3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys 75


    Maps


    3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria 69


    3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the


    Arab Republic of Egypt 70


    3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Morocco 71


    3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


    in the Syrian Arab Republic 72


    3.5 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


    in the Republic of Yemen 73


    Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


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