Climate Change and Migration

Climate Change and Migration

Climate Change and Migration

287 Pages ·2014·3.94 MB ·English

Climate Change and Migration

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EVIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST


AND NORTH AFRICA


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c Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani,


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P George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux


Editors Climate Change and Migration A WORLD BANK STUDY


Climate Change and Migration


Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa


Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph,


and Nathalie Bougnoux, Editors


Washington, D.C. © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank


1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433


Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org


Some rights reserved


1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14


World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community


with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the


procedures appropriate to formally edited texts.


This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,


and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of


Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the


data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this


work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the


endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.


Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-


ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.


Rights and Permissions


This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://


creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy,


distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:


Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Wodon, Quentin, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie


Bougnoux, eds. 2014. Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa. World


Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2. License: Creative Commons


Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO


Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:


This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.


The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.


Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribu-


tion: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Responsibility for the views and opinions


expressed in the adaptation rests solely with the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The


World Bank.


Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within


the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual com-


ponent or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims


resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your


responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the


copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.


All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank,


1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.


ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9971-2


ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9972-9


DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


Cover photo: Young women fetching water from a well in Taroudant Province, Morocco. © Julio Etchart / The World


Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse.


Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data


Climate change and migration : evidence from the Middle East and North Africa / edited by Quentin Wodon,


Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux.


pages cm


“World Bank Study.”


ISBN 978-0-8213-9971-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-9972-9


1. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—Middle East. 2. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—


Africa, North. 3. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Middle East. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—


Africa, North. 5. Middle East—Environmental conditions. 6. Middle East—Economic conditions. 7. Africa,


North—Environmental conditions. 8. Africa, North—Economic conditions. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. World Bank.


HB2093.3.A3C55 2013


304.80956--dc23 2013015475


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents


Acknowledgments xi


Overview xiii


Introduction xiii


Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households xv


Coping and Adaptation Strategies xvi


Migration xix


Remittances xxii


Conclusion and Policy Implications xxiii


Note xxvii


Bibliography xxvii


PART 1 Synthesis 1


Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation


in the MENA Region 3


Introduction 4


Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather


Events 8


Migration 13


Remittances 20


Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies 21


Community and Government Programs 27


Conclusion 30


Notes 31


Bibliography 32


PART 2 Focus Countries and Data 37


Chapter 2 Focus Countries 39


Introduction 39


Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries 40


Algerian Context 43


Egyptian Context 47


Moroccan Context 50


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 v vi Contents


Syrian Context 53


Yemeni Context 56


Conclusion 59


Notes 59


Bibliography 59


Chapter 3 Data Collection 65


Introduction 65


Household Survey Questionnaire 66


Household Survey Data Collection 68


Qualitative Data Collection 81


Conclusion 86


PART 3 I mpacts, Coping Strategies, and


Adaptation Mechanisms 87


Chapter 4 P erceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks,


and Impacts on Households 89


Introduction 89


Data 90


Perceptions of Climate Change 92


Impact on Households 97


Conclusion 103


Annex 4A: Distribution of Perceptions by Quintiles


of the MCA’s First Factor 104


Bibliography 105


Chapter 5 W eather Shocks, Impacts, and Households’


Ability to Recover in Morocco 107


Introduction 107


Data 109


Basic Statistics 110


Correlates of the Likelihood of Shocks and


the Ability to Recover 114


Conclusion 120


Bibliography 120


Chapter 6 H ow Do Households Cope with and Adapt


to Climate Change? 123


Introduction 123


Data and Methodology 124


Household Coping Mechanisms 127


Household Adaptation Strategies 132


Community-Level and Government Responses 139


Conclusion 141


Bibliography 142


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents vii


PART 4 Climate Change and Migration 143


Chapter 7 D o Changes in Weather Patterns and the


Environment Lead to Migration? 145


Introduction 145


Data 147


Basic Statistics 149


Correlates of Resident and Nonresident Migration 155


Conclusion 160


Annex 7A: Reasons for Migration by Country,


Five Countries Sample 161


Bibliography 162


Chapter 8 C limate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region:


Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork 163


Introduction 163


Rationale for Qualitative Work and Methodology 165


Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


Rural (Sending) Areas 170


Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


Urban (Receiving) Areas 174


Heterogeneity between Countries in the


Reasons for Migration 179


Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco 182


Conclusion 184


Annex 8A: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


Interview Questions in Urban Areas 185


Annex 8B: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


Interview Questions in Rural Areas 186


Annex 8C: Key Informant Questions for Government


Officials and Nongovernmental Experts 188


Notes 189


Bibliography 189


Chapter 9 I s Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal


Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case 191


Introduction 191


Data and Methodology 192


Results 194


Conclusion 202


Bibliography 202


Chapter 10 E xtreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case


of Morocco 205


Introduction 205


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 viii Contents


Data 206


Basic Statistics 208


Correlates of the Probability of Migration 213


Conclusion 217


Bibliography 218


PART 5 Remittances 221


Chapter 11 D o Remittances Reach Households Living in Unfavorable


Climate Areas? Evidence from the Republic of Yemen 223


Introduction 223


Data and Methodology 225


Results 234


Conclusion 236


Notes 237


Bibliography 237


Chapter 12 D oes the Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human


Development Depend on the Climate of Receiving Areas? 241


Introduction 241


Data and Methodology 243


Results 244


Conclusion 250


Bibliography 251


Boxes


8.1 Testimony from a Rural Respondent in Algeria 171


8.2 Testimony from an Urban Respondent in the Republic


of Yemen 176


Figure


3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys 75


Maps


3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria 69


3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the


Arab Republic of Egypt 70


3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Morocco 71


3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


in the Syrian Arab Republic 72


3.5 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


in the Republic of Yemen 73


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


d


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e A W O R L D B A N K S T U D Y


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d


e


z


ri


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h Climate Change


ut


A


e


r


u


s


o


cl and Migration


s


Di


c


bli


u


P


EVIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST


AND NORTH AFRICA


d


e


z


ri


o


h


ut


A


e


r


u


s


o


cl


s


Di


c Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani,


bli


u


P George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux


Editors Climate Change and Migration A WORLD BANK STUDY


Climate Change and Migration


Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa


Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph,


and Nathalie Bougnoux, Editors


Washington, D.C. © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank


1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433


Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org


Some rights reserved


1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14


World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community


with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the


procedures appropriate to formally edited texts.


This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,


and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of


Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the


data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this


work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the


endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.


Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-


ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.


Rights and Permissions


This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://


creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy,


distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:


Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Wodon, Quentin, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie


Bougnoux, eds. 2014. Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa. World


Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2. License: Creative Commons


Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO


Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:


This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.


The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.


Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribu-


tion: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Responsibility for the views and opinions


expressed in the adaptation rests solely with the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The


World Bank.


Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within


the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual com-


ponent or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims


resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your


responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the


copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.


All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank,


1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.


ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9971-2


ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9972-9


DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


Cover photo: Young women fetching water from a well in Taroudant Province, Morocco. © Julio Etchart / The World


Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse.


Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data


Climate change and migration : evidence from the Middle East and North Africa / edited by Quentin Wodon,


Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux.


pages cm


“World Bank Study.”


ISBN 978-0-8213-9971-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-9972-9


1. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—Middle East. 2. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—


Africa, North. 3. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Middle East. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—


Africa, North. 5. Middle East—Environmental conditions. 6. Middle East—Economic conditions. 7. Africa,


North—Environmental conditions. 8. Africa, North—Economic conditions. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. World Bank.


HB2093.3.A3C55 2013


304.80956--dc23 2013015475


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents


Acknowledgments xi


Overview xiii


Introduction xiii


Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households xv


Coping and Adaptation Strategies xvi


Migration xix


Remittances xxii


Conclusion and Policy Implications xxiii


Note xxvii


Bibliography xxvii


PART 1 Synthesis 1


Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation


in the MENA Region 3


Introduction 4


Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather


Events 8


Migration 13


Remittances 20


Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies 21


Community and Government Programs 27


Conclusion 30


Notes 31


Bibliography 32


PART 2 Focus Countries and Data 37


Chapter 2 Focus Countries 39


Introduction 39


Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries 40


Algerian Context 43


Egyptian Context 47


Moroccan Context 50


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 v vi Contents


Syrian Context 53


Yemeni Context 56


Conclusion 59


Notes 59


Bibliography 59


Chapter 3 Data Collection 65


Introduction 65


Household Survey Questionnaire 66


Household Survey Data Collection 68


Qualitative Data Collection 81


Conclusion 86


PART 3 I mpacts, Coping Strategies, and


Adaptation Mechanisms 87


Chapter 4 P erceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks,


and Impacts on Households 89


Introduction 89


Data 90


Perceptions of Climate Change 92


Impact on Households 97


Conclusion 103


Annex 4A: Distribution of Perceptions by Quintiles


of the MCA’s First Factor 104


Bibliography 105


Chapter 5 W eather Shocks, Impacts, and Households’


Ability to Recover in Morocco 107


Introduction 107


Data 109


Basic Statistics 110


Correlates of the Likelihood of Shocks and


the Ability to Recover 114


Conclusion 120


Bibliography 120


Chapter 6 H ow Do Households Cope with and Adapt


to Climate Change? 123


Introduction 123


Data and Methodology 124


Household Coping Mechanisms 127


Household Adaptation Strategies 132


Community-Level and Government Responses 139


Conclusion 141


Bibliography 142


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents vii


PART 4 Climate Change and Migration 143


Chapter 7 D o Changes in Weather Patterns and the


Environment Lead to Migration? 145


Introduction 145


Data 147


Basic Statistics 149


Correlates of Resident and Nonresident Migration 155


Conclusion 160


Annex 7A: Reasons for Migration by Country,


Five Countries Sample 161


Bibliography 162


Chapter 8 C limate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region:


Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork 163


Introduction 163


Rationale for Qualitative Work and Methodology 165


Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


Rural (Sending) Areas 170


Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in


Urban (Receiving) Areas 174


Heterogeneity between Countries in the


Reasons for Migration 179


Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco 182


Conclusion 184


Annex 8A: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


Interview Questions in Urban Areas 185


Annex 8B: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth


Interview Questions in Rural Areas 186


Annex 8C: Key Informant Questions for Government


Officials and Nongovernmental Experts 188


Notes 189


Bibliography 189


Chapter 9 I s Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal


Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case 191


Introduction 191


Data and Methodology 192


Results 194


Conclusion 202


Bibliography 202


Chapter 10 E xtreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case


of Morocco 205


Introduction 205


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 viii Contents


Data 206


Basic Statistics 208


Correlates of the Probability of Migration 213


Conclusion 217


Bibliography 218


PART 5 Remittances 221


Chapter 11 D o Remittances Reach Households Living in Unfavorable


Climate Areas? Evidence from the Republic of Yemen 223


Introduction 223


Data and Methodology 225


Results 234


Conclusion 236


Notes 237


Bibliography 237


Chapter 12 D oes the Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human


Development Depend on the Climate of Receiving Areas? 241


Introduction 241


Data and Methodology 243


Results 244


Conclusion 250


Bibliography 251


Boxes


8.1 Testimony from a Rural Respondent in Algeria 171


8.2 Testimony from an Urban Respondent in the Republic


of Yemen 176


Figure


3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys 75


Maps


3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria 69


3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the


Arab Republic of Egypt 70


3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Morocco 71


3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


in the Syrian Arab Republic 72


3.5 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey


in the Republic of Yemen 73


Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2


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