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EVIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST

AND NORTH AFRICA

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Editors Climate Change and Migration A WORLD BANK STUDY

Climate Change and Migration

Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph,

and Nathalie Bougnoux, Editors

Washington, D.C. © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433

Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org

Some rights reserved

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ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9971-2

ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9972-9

DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2

Cover photo: Young women fetching water from a well in Taroudant Province, Morocco. © Julio Etchart / The World

Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Climate change and migration : evidence from the Middle East and North Africa / edited by Quentin Wodon,

Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux.

pages cm

“World Bank Study.”

ISBN 978-0-8213-9971-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-9972-9

1. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—Middle East. 2. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—

Africa, North. 3. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Middle East. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—

Africa, North. 5. Middle East—Environmental conditions. 6. Middle East—Economic conditions. 7. Africa,

North—Environmental conditions. 8. Africa, North—Economic conditions. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. World Bank.

HB2093.3.A3C55 2013

304.80956--dc23 2013015475

Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents

Acknowledgments xi

Overview xiii

Introduction xiii

Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households xv

Coping and Adaptation Strategies xvi

Migration xix

Remittances xxii

Conclusion and Policy Implications xxiii

Note xxvii

Bibliography xxvii

PART 1 Synthesis 1

Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation

in the MENA Region 3

Introduction 4

Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather

Events 8

Migration 13

Remittances 20

Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies 21

Community and Government Programs 27

Conclusion 30

Notes 31

Bibliography 32

PART 2 Focus Countries and Data 37

Chapter 2 Focus Countries 39

Introduction 39

Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries 40

Algerian Context 43

Egyptian Context 47

Moroccan Context 50

Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 v vi Contents

Syrian Context 53

Yemeni Context 56

Conclusion 59

Notes 59

Bibliography 59

Chapter 3 Data Collection 65

Introduction 65

Household Survey Questionnaire 66

Household Survey Data Collection 68

Qualitative Data Collection 81

Conclusion 86

PART 3 I mpacts, Coping Strategies, and

Adaptation Mechanisms 87

Chapter 4 P erceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks,

and Impacts on Households 89

Introduction 89

Data 90

Perceptions of Climate Change 92

Impact on Households 97

Conclusion 103

Annex 4A: Distribution of Perceptions by Quintiles

of the MCA’s First Factor 104

Bibliography 105

Chapter 5 W eather Shocks, Impacts, and Households’

Ability to Recover in Morocco 107

Introduction 107

Data 109

Basic Statistics 110

Correlates of the Likelihood of Shocks and

the Ability to Recover 114

Conclusion 120

Bibliography 120

Chapter 6 H ow Do Households Cope with and Adapt

to Climate Change? 123

Introduction 123

Data and Methodology 124

Household Coping Mechanisms 127

Household Adaptation Strategies 132

Community-Level and Government Responses 139

Conclusion 141

Bibliography 142

Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents vii

PART 4 Climate Change and Migration 143

Chapter 7 D o Changes in Weather Patterns and the

Environment Lead to Migration? 145

Introduction 145

Data 147

Basic Statistics 149

Correlates of Resident and Nonresident Migration 155

Conclusion 160

Annex 7A: Reasons for Migration by Country,

Five Countries Sample 161

Bibliography 162

Chapter 8 C limate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region:

Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork 163

Introduction 163

Rationale for Qualitative Work and Methodology 165

Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in

Rural (Sending) Areas 170

Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in

Urban (Receiving) Areas 174

Heterogeneity between Countries in the

Reasons for Migration 179

Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco 182

Conclusion 184

Annex 8A: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth

Interview Questions in Urban Areas 185

Annex 8B: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth

Interview Questions in Rural Areas 186

Annex 8C: Key Informant Questions for Government

Officials and Nongovernmental Experts 188

Notes 189

Bibliography 189

Chapter 9 I s Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal

Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case 191

Introduction 191

Data and Methodology 192

Results 194

Conclusion 202

Bibliography 202

Chapter 10 E xtreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case

of Morocco 205

Introduction 205

Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 viii Contents

Data 206

Basic Statistics 208

Correlates of the Probability of Migration 213

Conclusion 217

Bibliography 218

PART 5 Remittances 221

Chapter 11 D o Remittances Reach Households Living in Unfavorable

Climate Areas? Evidence from the Republic of Yemen 223

Introduction 223

Data and Methodology 225

Results 234

Conclusion 236

Notes 237

Bibliography 237

Chapter 12 D oes the Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human

Development Depend on the Climate of Receiving Areas? 241

Introduction 241

Data and Methodology 243

Results 244

Conclusion 250

Bibliography 251

Boxes

8.1 Testimony from a Rural Respondent in Algeria 171

8.2 Testimony from an Urban Respondent in the Republic

of Yemen 176

Figure

3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys 75

Maps

3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria 69

3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the

Arab Republic of Egypt 70

3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Morocco 71

3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey

in the Syrian Arab Republic 72

3.5 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey

in the Republic of Yemen 73

Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2