2

Change Climate

448 Pages · 2013 · 1.98 MB · English

  • Change Climate

    European Research on


    Climate


    Change


    Funded by the Seventh


    Framework Programme


    Research and


    Innovation EUROPEAN COMMISSION


    Directorate-General for Research and Innovation


    Directorate I – Environment


    Unit I.4 – Climate Change & Natural Hazards


    Contact: Estelle Barrillon


    E-mail: estelle.barrillon@ec.europa.eu


    RTD-PUBLICATIONS@ec.europa.eu


    European Commission


    B-1049 Brussels EUROPEAN COMMISSION


    European Research on


    Climate Change


    Funded by the Seventh Framework Programme


    2013 Directorate-General for Research and Innovation EUROPE DIRECT is a service to help you find answers


    to your questions about the European Union


    Freephone number (*):


    00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11


    (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers


    or these calls may be billed


    LEGAL NOTICE


    Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible


    for the use which might be made of the following information.


    The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily


    reflect the views of the European Commission.


    More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).


    Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication.


    Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013


    ISBN 978-92-79-31251-9


    doi:10.2777/30474


    © European Union, 2013


    Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.


    Cover image : © Sergey Nivens, #33443008, 2012. Source: Fotolia.com INTRODUCTION


    Climate change is arguably among the most about climate change and lead to the estab-


    pressing societal challenges of our times, lishment of the IPCC in 1988. Since then, Eu-


    and now certainly the most well-known ropean research provided essential contribu-


    amongst the public. From initial observa- tions to its regularly published assessment


    tions of global warming and proposed ideas reports.


    about the root causes, a steady consensus


    has built up that climate change is one of Climate change research has grown consid-


    the most serious threats facing the world in erably in size and complexity. FP5 (1998–


    the near future. It is very clearly stated in 2002) supported a large number of projects


    the recently released 5th Assessment Report within the specific ‘key action’ on ‘Glob-


    of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate al Change, Climate and Biodiversity’. FP6


    Change (IPCC) on the physical science basis, (2003-2008) supported 31 large projects on


    that global warming is mostly caused by hu- climate change, with research areas ranging


    man activities. from atmospheric pollutants to the predic-


    tion of climate change and its impacts..


    Climate change research:


    its European roots Climate change in the Seventh


    Framework Programme for research


    Climate sciences have an illustrious Europe- (FP7, 2007-2013)


    an history. In the 19th century, Germany’s


    Wladimir Köppen laid the foundations for Climate research has been one of the main


    climatology, while the French mathemati- research themes of FP7 with one of its


    cian Joseph Fourier (1768 – 1830) postu- ‘Theme’, i.e. ‘Environment (including climate


    lated the natural greenhouse warming effect


    change)’ which includes it explicitly in the ti-


    and speculated that human behaviour could


    tle. Actions have supported research projects


    change a regions climate. Swedish Nobel


    that analyse pressures on the environment


    Prize winner Svante Arrhenius made the


    (oceans, atmosphere, and ecosystems) and


    first, and amazingly realistic, calculations in


    improve our understanding of the complex


    1896 on how changes in the levels of car-


    climate system, also through Earth System


    bon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere could


    modelling. Another key research area includ-


    alter the temperature of the Earth’s surface.


    ed assessing impacts, vulnerabilities and


    In the 1930s the British scientist Guy Stew-


    solutions for adapting to climate change, de-


    art Callendar demonstrated that global land


    veloping strategies for disaster risk reduction


    temperatures had increased over the pre-


    and analysing pathways for a smooth tran-


    vious 50 years and showed that this could


    sition to a low-carbon society. While some


    have been caused by anthropogenic CO2


    calls are still open and a final figure cannot


    emissions.


    yet be given, a rough estimation indicates


    Research into the Earth’s climate system has that from 2007 to 2013 in FP7 over 800 Mil-


    been present in the EU’s Framework Pro- lion Euro were spent on supporting climate


    grammes from the beginning. In the 1980s change research. The majority of the funding


    the focus was on the ozone depletion in the was provided for collaborative research proj-


    stratosphere and EU-projects played an im- ects within the ‘Cooperation’ programme1 ,


    portant role for the global ban of the pro- complemented by other funding for research


    duction of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and infrastructures for climate observations and


    other ozone depleting substances (Montreal modelling and for investigator-driven ‘fron-


    protocol). Meanwhile, the increasing concen- tier’ research awarded by the European Re-


    tration of greenhouse gases raised concerns search Council2 (ERC).


    I 1 = http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/cooperation/home_en.html


    2 = http://erc.europa.eu/ Research activities on climate change rep- search has focused on the observations and


    resents only a relatively minor part of what simulation of Earth System processes at dif-


    we can name as “climate-related” research. ferent scales, determining and understand-


    In fact, much more has been done in view of ing climate variations of the past, as well as


    developing a low carbon economy, through on the production of reliable projections of


    activities funded by the Framework Pro- future change. The results were used in the


    gramme notably in the areas of energy, IPCC reports and other assessments sup-


    transport, agriculture, industrial and infor- porting decision-making and have provided


    mation technologies which contribute to the information of great value for many so-


    identification and development of mitigation cio-economic sectors across Europe. Studies


    options through progress on energy efficien- of single or combined critical ocean/atmo-


    cy, renewable energy, low carbon manufac- sphere/land interactions have been conduct-


    turing processes and more environmentally ed in different climate regions (e.g. Arctic,


    friendly transport systems. Mediterranean, North Atlantic) in Europe and


    worldwide. Whenever significant, focus has


    International cooperation has been an im- been given to processes affecting reversibil-


    portant element of FP7. Participation in FP7 ity and triggering abrupt changes. Substantial


    was in fact open to all countries worldwide, improvements in the Earth system models


    with many Third countries (especially de- have allowed to obtain more accurate climate


    veloping ones and those with economies in projections at seasonal-to-decadal time


    transition) also eligible for funding. For the scales, and to reduce uncertainties in the pre-


    projects presented in this catalogue, partic- diction of climate change for future decades.


    ipation of institutions from non-European


    countries amount to approximately 9,5% of Robust and long-term climate observations


    the total number of project partners, while fi- are crucial to the production and validation


    nancial contribution from FP7 to these coun- of reliable predictions. It is an essential part


    tries represent even 14% of total spending. of the EU’s research policy to support infra-


    Key participating countries in this domain structures and their European and global


    include China, India, Brazil, Russia, USA, Can- integration. Networks of autonomous (EU-


    ada, South Africa, and Japan. RO-ARGO) or manned monitoring platforms


    (EURO-Fleets, ACTRIS) provide baseline


    Six research areas have been covered in this climate data as well as process studies. Sup-


    catalogue: port for networking, trans-national access


    and joint research has improved the perfor-


    1. Climate observation, processes and pro- mance of distributed stations like InterAct,


    jections a circumpolar net of research facilities for


    2. The carbon and nitrogen cycles and green- monitoring change in Arctic terrestrial eco-


    house gas emissions systems. FP7 also supported the preparation


    and implementation of essential infrastruc-


    3. Atmospheric pollution and climate inter-


    tures identified in the ESFRI3 roadmap, like


    actions


    IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Ob-


    4. Climate change impacts serving System), ICOS, the Integrated Car-


    5. Climate related natural hazards and ex- bon Observing System, and the Svalbard


    treme events Integrated Observing System (SIOS). These


    6. Climate change adaptation, mitigation and efforts, as well as dedicated projects focus-


    relevant policies sing for example on the oxygen depletion


    in the ocean (HYPOX) or capacity building


    (GEONETCAB), have contributed to the set-


    Climate observation, processes and


    up of the Global Earth Observation System


    projections


    of Systems (GEOSS).


    Climate observations and modelling have The ERC grants support frontier research


    been the main research pillars in FP7. Re- projects related to climate science, with


    II 3 = European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures focus on various aspects like biosphere-cli- The carbon and nitrogen cycles and


    mate interaction or the formation of small greenhouse gas emissions


    particles (aerosol) and clouds in the atmo-


    sphere. Several ERC projects attempt to Research on carbon cycle and other green-


    improve the reconstruction of atmospheric house gases has been an important com-


    CO2 concentrations, carbon cycling or tem- ponent in FP7 in order to fill key knowledge


    peratures thousands - or even millions - of gaps. Research actions have mainly focused


    years back in time which are fundamental on providing an improved quantitative as-


    for better projecting future change. sessment of the sources and sinks of carbon


    and/or nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems in


    Critical aspects of climate modelling such Europe and the Atlantic Ocean, assessing


    as missing or lacking understanding of key their vulnerability to climate change and


    processes in the atmosphere and the ocean human activities and better quantifying the


    have been successfully addressed via proj- impact of elevated carbon concentrations


    ects such as COMBINE (inclusion of pro- to ecosystems, such as ocean acidifica-


    cesses such as C-and N-cycle, sea-ice and tion. This effort led to the establishment of


    permafrost) and EUCLIPSE (cloud model- high-quality, long-term observation systems


    ling), respectively. They offered new evalua- and to the development of state-of-the-art


    tion tools and climate simulations in support models that accurately capture carbon-cli-


    of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). mate interactions. Results have contributed


    These projects, as well as the climate model- to key international scientific assessments


    ling community in general, profited from the (e.g. IPCC) and programmes (Global Carbon


    EU support to the e infrastructure for the Eu- Project). Furthermore, particular emphasis


    ropean Network for Earth System Modelling was given to vulnerable ecosystems with


    (IS-ENES). high carbon and/or nitrogen content such a


    permafrost soils and tropical forests.


    Ocean acidification is one of the most critical


    aspects of the continuously increasing CO2 Another lighthouse project is NITROEUROPE


    concentrations in the atmosphere, due its which addressed the major question of what


    severe impacts on the ocean ecosystem. The is the effect of reactive nitrogen (Nr) supply


    EPOCA project, a major contributor to AR5, on net greenhouse gas budgets for Europe.


    has generated key information on ocean The project provided key elements to answer


    acidification including the rate at which it this question:


    proceeds and the hotspots where critical - A comprehensive new European Nitrogen


    pH values will be reached first. It assessed Budget (for EU27);


    the consequences of ocean acidification in - A more accurate estimate of the various


    terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, war ming and cooling effects of Nr man-


    biogeochemical processes and feedbacks on agement in Europe;


    the climate system, and identified the most - A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis;


    vulnerable ecosystems. - An assessment of management options


    for more efficient management of the


    Another major achievement is the launch of nitrogen cycle, with recommendations to


    “European climate observations, modelling reduce the climate warming effects of Nr


    and services” (ECOMS) initiative focusing on losses and the provision of evidence base


    seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the de- for the design of environmental policies.


    livery of trustworthy climate information to


    stakeholders. ECOMS integrates three major


    projects respectively dealing with observa- Atmospheric pollution and climate


    tions (NACLIM), climate modelling (SPECS) interactions


    and climate services (EUPORIAS) and is a


    key European contribution to the WMO Glob- FP7 has significantly contributed to advance


    al Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). the understanding of the complex changes


    III in the composition of the atmosphere and tribution to the review of the EU’s air poli-


    the impact they have on the environment. cies due in 2013 through the publication of


    Research efforts have focussed on providing a summary of policy-relevant findings that


    sound scientific basis to combat the adverse was presented at the ‘2013 Green Week’ in


    effects we are facing, namely the warming Brussels.


    of the climate and the negative impact on


    health and ecosystems associated to air pol-


    lution. Results have contributed to the revi- Climate change impacts


    sion and implementation of EU Air policy and


    to reduce the uncertainties in the climate Climate projections indicate that our envi-


    models, in particular by better understanding ronment and society can be significantly af-


    the role of atmospheric aerosols and other fected in the medium to long-term. Impacts


    short lived pollutants and their precursors across the globe will be diverse, posing se-


    (including nitrogen oxides, volatile organ- vere challenges but also sometimes creat-


    ic compounds, sulphate, and black carbon). ing opportunities. They can span a variety


    Particular attention has also been given to of sectors, including agriculture, the water


    the development of integrated assessment cycle, land cover and vegetation, ecosys-


    tools for the design of emission abatement tems, the marine environment, health, etc.


    strategies taking into consideration relevant Climate change impacts concern not only the


    socio-economic aspects. natural environment, but also peoples’ liveli-


    hoods, and will challenge our socio-econom-


    The RECONCILE project is studying the de- ic system and structures. Relevant research


    pletion of ozone layer through dedicated seeks to assess the level and magnitude of


    laboratory and field measurements, work- potential impacts, to help us identify the ex-


    ing to improve model representations which tent and likelihood of expected changes. On


    can simulate and predict current and future the one hand, this information helps us un-


    Arctic stratospheric ozone loss. This project derstand our vulnerabilities and adaptation


    contributed to the observation and expla- needs; on the other, it also informs climate


    nation of the first ever Arctic ozone hole in policies, by identifying critical thresholds and


    2011 when an area of very low stratospheric tipping points for our ecosystems and econ-


    ozone concentration, comparable to the loss omies.


    observed every year over Antarctica, oc-


    curred over the Arctic. The Impact2C project integrates the expertise


    of top climate scientists, impact specialists


    Air quality and climate change have tradi- with both scientific and economic backgrounds,


    tionally been viewed separately by scientists and local specialists from specific regions un-


    and politicians alike. Breaking with this tradi- der study. All are working to deliver maximum


    tion, the FP7 PEGASOS project assesses the support on the development of sectoral and


    impacts of European air pollution on climate cross-sectoral pan-European strategies for


    change and vice versa by combining field adapting to a 2°C global temperature rise.


    measurements at different heights with state


    of the art atmospheric and climate models. In addition to global impact assessments,


    Thanks to the unique flight characteristics of several FP7 projects have dealt with cli-


    the Zeppelin airship used by the project, the mate change impacts on specific sectors


    scientists had an unprecedented view of how and vulnerability hotspots. Among these, the


    pollution is distributed in the lowest one or CLIWASEC cluster, formed by the CLIMB,


    two kilometers of the atmosphere over Eu- WASSERMed and CLICO projects, focused


    rope. It is in this layer of the atmosphere that on water security in the Mediterranean re-


    most pollutants emitted on the ground react gion. The projects have provided a better


    with other atmospheric compounds. understanding of the hydrological budget


    and potential changes in the water balance


    PEGASOS, with other 20 projects related of specific catchments, and of more global


    to air quality, provided a very valuable con- impacts on key economic sectors and activi-


    IV ties. The ACQWA project focused on chang- Urban areas of European countries face in-


    es in the water cycle of mountain regions, creasing flood risks due to urbanisation and


    which can have huge implications both for the effects of climate change. The STAR-


    local economies and for downstream areas. FLOOD project focuses on the development


    In Europe, the project studied the Rhone (CH/ and implementation of appropriate and


    FR) and the Po catchment (IT). Results from resilient flood risk governance arrange-


    the project indicate a future decline in alpine ments in Europe, whereas FLOODCHANGE


    snow cover, as well as an increase in extreme investigates the drivers of flood generation.


    precipitation events. Relevant impacts, in This is assumed to require a diversification


    terms of climate-driven hazards, forests, of Flood Risk Management Strategies – in-


    hydropower generation, agriculture, tourism cluding flood defence, pro-active spatial


    and aquatic ecosystems were studied exten- planning, flood mitigation, flood preparation


    sively to provide a comprehensive overview and recovery.


    of future risks.


    Flash floods present a challenge for early


    The Ice2sea project set the challenge of re- warning systems, since heavy rainfalls are


    ducing uncertainty in the contribution of gla- hard to be forecasted with high accuracy


    ciers and ice-sheets to sea-level rise, which and enough anticipation to allow efficient


    the last IPCC report identified as a key prob- decision and risk management support.


    lem in projections. Over the past four years Research carried out under the European


    project IMPRINTS has, however, produced


    a team of scientists from 24 institutions


    the first Early Warning operational platform


    have worked together to find out how i.e.


    able to provide hydrological warnings based


    the Greenland ice-sheet responds to global


    on the rainfall forecasted by meteorological


    warming. Based on observations and ad-


    models (few days in advance) and by weath-


    vanced computer simulations they forecast-


    er radar networks (few hours in advance).


    ed how much ice the Greenland and Antarctic


    The platform is able to transform the antici-


    glaciers will release to the ocean within the


    pation provided by the rainfall forecasts into


    next 200 years. The project provided a de-


    hydrological forecasts, and also to combine


    tailed global map of the non-uniform con-


    these hydrometeorological forecasts with


    tribution of the glaciers to sea level rise and


    the available information about vulnerabil-


    thus a sound scientific foundation for policy


    ity and flooding risks, providing a full Early


    development surrounding sea-level rise and


    Warning System for Flash Flood and Debris


    the best possible basis for European coastal


    Flow risk management.


    defense planning.


    The enhanced understanding of drought pro-


    cesses and their impacts is another key area


    Climate related natural hazards and


    where FP7 funded research contributes. Rel-


    extreme events


    evant early warning indicators, assessment


    of drought risks and potential damages are


    Managing future risks related to climate particularly challenging to address, given


    change and developing strategies for di- the complexity of the phenomenon, such as


    saster risk reduction need to take into slow onset, the diverse impacts depending


    account the possible risk drivers. Antic- on the geoclimatic region and socio-eco-


    ipating, preventing, limiting the impacts nomic context, and the very different levels


    and managing these threats will contrib- of preparedness and coping capacity. The


    ute to a safer and more resilient society. Drought-R&SPI project seeks to better


    The projects presented in this publication characterise past and future droughts in Eu-


    illustrate some examples of the on-going rope, both as natural hazards and in terms


    interdisciplinary research collaboration of their impacts. It actively works for devel-


    that is addressing the challenges societies oping a successful science-policy interface,


    and populations will have to face with cli- which is providing support to a number of EU


    mate-related hazards. policies.


    V


    Please note: To fully download this free PDF,EBook files you need know All free.
    Found by internet command,site not saved pdf file
You May Also Like

Related PPT Template in the same category.